In the world of esports betting, odds aren’t static — they fluctuate based on various factors like team form, news, and betting volume. Tracking these odds movements can give you a competitive edge, as they often reveal valuable insights into where the smart money is going. Understanding why odds move, when to jump in, and how to spot profitable opportunities is essential for any serious bettor.
Here’s a guide to help you track odds movements effectively and identify profitable betting opportunities on 98win
1. Understand How and Why Odds Move
Before diving into the specific strategies, it’s important to understand why odds change. Odds fluctuate for several reasons:
- Team News: Any significant news, like a player injury, roster change, or even a coach’s comments, can affect how the market views a team. If a star player is suddenly benched, the odds for that team may shift significantly.
- Betting Volume: As more people bet on a certain outcome, the odds will adjust to balance the action. If most bettors are backing a particular team, the odds on that team will shorten (move lower) to limit the bookmaker’s liability.
- Market Sentiment: Public perception often impacts odds. If a favorite team is experiencing a surge in popularity or an underdog is seeing a lot of media attention, odds will shift based on the hype or market sentiment.
- In-Play Factors: During live betting, the odds can change rapidly based on the flow of the game. As teams gain or lose momentum, bookmakers adjust the odds to reflect the changing dynamics.
2. Track Pre-Match Odds Movements
To identify profitable opportunities, you first need to understand how the odds are moving before the match begins. Pay attention to the following patterns:
- Early Movements: The first few hours after the odds are posted can offer a lot of value. Bookmakers might initially set odds based on general public knowledge, which often lacks deeper insights. If you spot value early — for example, an underdog that is being undervalued due to recent losses but actually has a good matchup — you can lock in a better price before the odds adjust.
- Sharp Moves: Sharp bettors, often professional or experienced gamblers, typically place large wagers early on. These bets can influence the odds significantly. If you notice a sharp move (e.g., a team’s odds dropping quickly), it’s often a sign that professional money is backing that outcome. In such cases, you might want to jump on the same side, especially if the reason behind the movement is related to insider knowledge or team-related news.
- Public Influence: On the other hand, if you see odds moving heavily towards one side, particularly after a lot of media attention or hype, the odds might be skewed. Public betting often moves the odds in favor of the favorite. If you can spot overreaction to hype, this could be a good time to bet against the public and back the underdog.
3. Track In-Play Odds Movements
Live betting offers a dynamic way to track odds movements during a match. The odds can change rapidly as the game unfolds, and understanding how to read these shifts can give you an edge. Key points to monitor include:
- Momentum Shifts: In esports, one or two early rounds can swing the odds dramatically. For example, in CS:GO, an underdog might win the first few rounds, which could lead to a massive shift in the odds. Spotting this momentum shift early allows you to take advantage of favorable odds before they return to “normal.”
- Match Dynamics: Pay attention to team rotations, map control, or key player performances. If a favorite team is struggling in the early stages, their odds might increase, making them a better value as the match progresses. Conversely, if an underdog is outperforming expectations, betting on them while their odds are still inflated can be a profitable strategy.
- Market Overreaction: In live betting, bookmakers often adjust odds based on immediate results, sometimes overreacting to a single round or event. For instance, if a star player is killed early on and a favorite’s odds drop, but the overall team remains strong, there may be an opportunity to buy low on that team if they’re likely to bounce back.
4. Utilize Betting Tools and Platforms to Monitor Odds
Tracking odds movements across multiple platforms can be time-consuming, but tools like Betfair, OddsPortal, or even 98win’s odds comparison feature can help you monitor fluctuations more efficiently. These platforms track odds in real time and allow you to see the history of price movements leading up to the match.
- Compare Odds Across Bookmakers: Check if 98win is offering better odds than other betting platforms. Sometimes, bookmakers have different perspectives on a match, and being able to spot discrepancies will give you an advantage.
- Odds Tracking Tools: Use tools that allow you to set alerts for certain odds movements. For example, if you’re waiting for a specific team’s odds to reach a particular value before placing a bet, you can set an alert on 98win or external tracking sites.
5. Spotting Value Bets Through Odds Movements
When tracking odds, always look for value — that is, when the odds on a team or outcome are higher than their true probability. Here’s how to spot it:
- When odds drift, look deeper: If a favorite’s odds are drifting, it could mean insiders are seeing issues, such as an injury or internal problem. This creates an opportunity to either bet against the favorite or back the underdog if the value increases.
- Identify stable odds for underdogs: If the odds on an underdog remain stable or improve slightly over time, it might be a sign that there is value. This often happens when a lot of people are betting on the favorite, and the underdog is still getting favorable odds.
Final Thoughts
Tracking odds movements and recognizing profitable betting opportunities is an art that takes time to master. By monitoring both pre-match and in-play odds, leveraging betting tools, and focusing on market reactions, you’ll be in a position to spot value bets that others miss.
On 98win, the dynamic nature of esports betting means that odds can shift quickly — but those fluctuations often provide hidden opportunities for savvy bettors who are paying attention. By understanding the reasons behind these shifts and acting quickly, you can turn the odds in your favor and increase your betting profitability.